Forever Lasting

Written By Buddy! Magazine
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Jenna Leung (ISB G10)

In her article, Jenna Leung delves into the question everyone’s been wondering about: when COVID-19 is going to end.

Having the same question in mind, she analyzes the end of the pandemic from medical and social perspectives, hoping to inform you on how COVID-19 would really end.

Having been stuck in lockdown for almost half a year has been hard for some, and maybe easy for others. But whichever “side” you were on, everyone’s definitely thought about when COVID-19, more importantly quarantine, was going to end. Many of have tried to predict and answer this question by using real world statistics and observing trends. Obviously nobody would ever know the definite answer, but perhaps we could explore the two “endings” recognized by medical historians: the medical ending, which occurs when the death rates begin to plummet, and the social ending, which occurs when the fear of the pandemic wanes.

(Courtesy of SCMP)

(Courtesy of SCMP)

In a perfect world, people would follow regulations—they would social distance, wear masks, and properly sanitize themselves. But since some people refuse to do that, the end of the pandemic is far away, probably nowhere in sight from now. In the big picture, pandemics don’t last forever. Pandemics settle and “adapt” in communities, in populations, “becoming a constant background presence that occasionally flares up in local outbreaks” (Snyder). Especially now that it’s winter, researchers speculate the outbreaks could get even worse. One common thing most people know is that humans are more susceptible to getting cases of flu and colds in the winter. But what most people might not know is that this increase in susceptibility is “often attributed to the fact that people spend more time indoors when it’s colder, coughing, sneezing and breathing on each other” (Pitt). Truth is, no matter what season and temperature it is, COVID will stay with us forever. There is no way for scientists to answer such an open-ended question, so the most conventional way to measure or predict the medical end would be to look towards vaccines. When an effective vaccine is is “discovered, trialed, manufactured and administered to a significant proportion of the population, society will acquire ‘herd immunity’ against the SARS-CoV-19 virus", and once the number of cases begins declining, "the outbreak will be brought under control“ (Pai). Professor Vazquez-Boland at the University of Edinburgh states that ”mass vaccination [will] likely be progressively rolled out along 2021" (Chadwick). But of course, since supply is going to be limited, it might last beyond 2021, possibly even longer.

(Courtesy of Gulf News)

(Courtesy of Gulf News)

As for the social ending, COVID will end when people begin to grow accustomed to the “panic mode” and learn to live with the virus. Harvard historian Allan Brandt even says that “the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes” (Kolata). In fact, some historians predict that the pandemic would end socially even before it would end medically. People might start to get so annoyed and tired of the restrictions that they decide that the virus is over. It sounds funny and probably a tad bit stupid, but Yale historian Naomi Rogers thinks “there is this sort of social-psychological issue of exhaustion and frustration” (Kolata). To prove that, some countries are already experiencing their social endings. Several governors have announced the reopening of hair salons, restaurants, and gyms despite the warnings of public health officials. Frankly speaking, many people have already started to “overcome” their concerns of the pandemic, which reflects what I’ve seen on social media. I’m sure you all have come across quarantine memes: TikTok recipes to try out in quarantine and “my quarantine routine” or “stuck in lockdown” YouTube videos. During the beginning of the pandemic, everyone lived in panic and chaos, as expected (quite a normal reaction for a highly contagious worldwide pandemic that’s wiping out millions of people). But now, nearly a whole year later, people have gotten used to it (speaking from what I’ve experienced and the people around me). So, does this mean COVID-19 has socially ended for us and those in Beijing at least? Or does the government get to announce the end to the pandemic according to the medical aspect?

(Courtesy of istockphoto)

(Courtesy of istockphoto)

See, here’s the conflict. Public health officials would use the medical aspects to determine the end to the pandemic, whereas people of the community would define it using the social ending. Not only is there conflict between which one would get to claim the end, but there’s debate as to which ending would come first. Which one would come first, and which one gets to be the “official ending”? I’d say the medical ending should come first because it ultimately should determine the social ending of COVID-19. What do you think?

Buddy! Magazine
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